> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.getvector.me/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Snapshots and forecast accuracy

> Freeze a forecast in time, compare it against what actually happened, and track whether your forecasting is getting better across snapshots.

<Callout icon="wrench" color="#F59E0B">
  **This area is still in development.** The product marks Modeling as **WIP**: screens, labels and behavior described here can change, and some steps may not work yet.
</Callout>

Assumptions change, and [actuals](/modeling/actuals-and-forecast) accumulate — which makes it easy to lose track of what you actually believed at an earlier point in time. Snapshots solve that: they freeze a forecast so you can come back to it later and see how it held up against reality.

## Freeze a snapshot

Click **Freeze snapshot** at the top of the project. Vector saves the project's assumptions, the full calculated forecast and the date. Your working model isn't affected.

A snapshot takes the last saved version of your assumptions. If the dot next to the project name shows unsaved changes, click **Save now** first.

A snapshot never changes: editing assumptions or recording new actuals later leaves it as it was. Your snapshots are listed in the **Snapshots — accuracy of past forecasts** section of the project's dashboard, and the list stays quick to open however many you collect.

To delete a snapshot you no longer need, click **×** on it and confirm. Only that snapshot goes; the project and its actuals stay.

## Compare a snapshot against reality

In **Snapshots — accuracy of past forecasts**, pick a snapshot, and choose the metric to check: workspaces or revenue. The chart then shows three things together: the forecast that snapshot implied, your actuals, and your current forecast — which makes it easy to spot a systematic pattern, like a snapshot that was consistently too optimistic.

Once the metric has actuals, Vector also says how far reality has been from the snapshot on average, and in which direction — above or below what you expected. With no actuals for that metric yet, no figure is shown.

## See whether your forecasting improves

Once you have several snapshots and actuals for the months they forecast, **Forecast accuracy over time** compares each past snapshot with what really happened, and says at the top whether you're **↓ improving**, **↑ worsening** or **→ flat**. For each snapshot, in date order:

* **Avg miss (MAPE)** — the typical size of the miss, in percent. Lower later on means you're forecasting better.
* **Bias** — the direction you lean: **over** means you were optimistic, **under** pessimistic, or **on target**.
* **months scored** — how many months the figures rest on.

Below the table, **Miss by forecast horizon** groups the misses by how far ahead each prediction was, so you can see how much to discount distant months. **Predictability by metric** shows which metrics are hardest to predict — the ones whose assumptions need the most scrutiny.

### How accuracy is scored

A few rules keep these numbers honest:

* Only months where a snapshot's forecast overlaps with a recorded actual are scored. A snapshot with no overlap yet is marked **not yet evaluable** — never shown as 0% error or a perfect forecast.
* A month with a zero actual is excluded from the percentage-error figure, since a percentage against zero isn't meaningful; the remaining months are still scored.
* Every scored figure shows how many months it's based on, so a number from one overlapping month isn't presented with the same confidence as one from a year of them.
* Each scored point also carries how far ahead it was forecast, so near-term accuracy isn't mixed together with long-range accuracy.

Until a snapshot has actuals to compare with, the accuracy view says **No accuracy yet** and explains what it needs, instead of showing an error or a misleading zero.

<Note>
  Viewing accuracy never changes anything. Snapshots, actuals, and forecasts stay exactly as recorded — this view only reads them.
</Note>

## Where to go next

<Columns cols={2}>
  <Card title="Record actuals and forecast from them" icon="arrow-left" href="/modeling/actuals-and-forecast">
    Recording the actuals this is measured against.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Unit economics and pricing" icon="arrow-right" href="/modeling/unit-economics-and-pricing">
    The economics underneath the forecast.
  </Card>
</Columns>
