Skip to main content
This area is still in development. The product marks Modeling as WIP: screens, labels and behavior described here can change, and some steps may not work yet.
Assumptions describe what you expect; actuals describe what really happened. Record your actuals and Vector shows both side by side — and the forecast picks up from reality instead of drifting further from it every month you don’t check in.

​
Enter what happened

Open the project and scroll to Fact vs plan. It’s a table with a column for your starting point, 0 · base, and one for each of the first 18 months. Each metric has three rows: plan shows what the model expected, you type the real value into fact, and dev. shows how far fact is from plan, in percent. Start with the 0 · base column: your starting point as it is today. For workspaces, the base is the model’s own starting number, so changing it changes the plan too; for other metrics it’s for reference. Monthly actuals are saved to the project straight away and kept apart from your assumptions — entering one never changes the plan. Enter at least two or three months to see the forecast start building from your real numbers.

​
Rules for actual values

  • One value per month and metric. A new value for a month you’ve already recorded replaces the old one.
  • Zero is a real value. Recording 0 says the metric really hit zero that month; leaving the cell empty says you don’t know.
  • Gaps are fine. Record month 1 and month 3 but skip month 2, and the forecast picks up from month 3. The skipped month shows as a gap on the chart, not as a zero.
  • The table covers the first 18 months of the model’s 36.

​
Compare the plan with what happened

Once you’ve recorded at least one month of workspaces, two charts — Workspaces added and churned and MRR breakdown — show three layers: The forecast always starts exactly where your most recent actual left off. Until you record workspaces, the charts show the plan alone.

​
Correct the plan

The gap between the dashed plan and the dots is how far off your assumptions were. When it grows, go back to the assumptions behind that metric and adjust them, so the plan reflects what you’re learning about your business. Before you do, freeze a snapshot of the current forecast, so you can later see how the old plan compared with reality.

​
Where to go next

Start a project from a template

Getting a model in the first place.

Assumptions and dashboard

Changing the plan you compare reality against.